MLB free agent predictions 2024: Where will Soto, Bregman and Alonso land?

Major League Baseball's offseason is underway, with Juan Soto's free agency the big topic of discussion.

Just 26 years old, Soto is one of the best players to ever hit the open market and is expected to fetch more than $600 million, perhaps making a run at Shohei Ohtani's record $700 million deal last winter. Soto spent 2024 with the Yankees and they're the odds-on favorite to bring him back to the Bronx.

While Soto headlines the 2024-25 free agents, he's joined by Cy Young winners Blake Snell (Giants) and Corbin Burnes (Orioles) atop the class, along with third baseman Alex Bregman (Astros), first baseman Pete Alonso (Mets) and 2022 Cy Young runner-up Max Fried (Atlanta).

Here's where USA TODAY Sports' MLB writers and editors see the top free agents ending up:

Juan Soto

∙ Bob Nightengale: Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays still have $700 million burning a hole in their wallet, and after Yankees refuse to budge from their original offer, the Blue Jays swoop in and get their man for $630 million over 14 years.

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∙ Gabe Lacques: New York Yankees – It’s either scratch a half-billion dollar check or try to “replace him in the aggregate.” And that’s largely not possible given what else is on the market and in the minor-league system.

∙ Steve Gardner:New York Yankees – He’ll listen to offers and Scott Boras will do his due diligence, but Soto’s career-high homer total last season was boosted by Yankee Stadium’s short porch. The Yankees can’t afford to lose Soto’s left-handed power bat so look for him to enjoy that home-park advantage for years to come.

∙ Scott Boeck: New York Yankees – Soto said he was available to all 30 teams after the World Series, but only a few can realistically afford him. The Bronx – and Yankee Stadium's short porch – is the best fit for him.

∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Yankees – A reunion just makes sense with the Yankees and Soto, who would be paired with Aaron Judge for (at least) seven more opportunities to win a World Series together.

Blake Snell

∙ Bob Nightengale: San Francisco Giants – He didn’t want to sign there a year ago, but the market collapsed. He showed what he’s capable of with his monster second half, and the Giants fell in love with him. It’s not his hometown of Seattle, but it’s close enough.

∙ Gabe Lacques: San Francisco Giants – The Buster Posey Administration needs a W to earn credibility with fans, Snell was comfortable enough there and they’ve been sitting on fat stacks of cash for quite a while now.

∙ Steve Gardner: San Diego Padres – A return to San Diego isn’t out of the question. He won a Cy Young there and the Padres may be only one bold move away from overtaking the Dodgers. Getting a left-hander for their all-righty rotation just might be the missing piece.

∙ Scott Boeck: San Francisco Giants – The two-time Cy Young winner remains in the Bay where he became a very reliable starter after a horrific start to the 2024 season. Just sign him before spring training starts or the Red Sox may grab him.

∙ Jesse Yomtov: Los Angeles Angels – In the mix for the two-time Cy Young winner's services last winter (and spring), maybe the Angels will pull the trigger this time, committing multiple years to Snell for their upcoming battle with the Athletics for fifth place in the AL West.

Corbin Burnes

∙ Bob Nightengale: Chicago Cubs – Hey, his former boss fled the Brewers for the Cubs, so why can’t he join Craig Counsell and come along too, and really be hated in Milwaukee? Living at home in Phoenix during spring training simply may be too good to pass up.

∙ Gabe Lacques: New York Mets – With three starters off to free agency, the Mets can pay upper-middle-class prices for volatile replacements, or burn some Cohen Cash on what looks like the surest bet on the market.

∙ Steve Gardner: New York Mets – Losing out on the bidding for Soto, the Mets will pivot to pitching. Burnes is the next-biggest name on the block and will provide the durability and consistency they desperately need with last year’s top two starters, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea, also free agents.

∙ Scott Boeck: New York Mets – The Mets will turn to Burnes, not Snell, to lead be the ace of the staff. Unfortunately for the Orioles, billionaire owner Cohen will outbid them and every other team.

∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Yankees – After Gerrit Cole's bizarre opt-out saga, the Yankees really should add another sure thing to the rotation. The former Cy Young winner is the safest bet of the aces on the market this winter and stealing him from the Orioles would further move the needle in the always-competitive AL East, putting Baltimore's new ownership on the back foot.

Alex Bregman

∙ Bob Nightengale: New York Yankees – Bregman has always loved the spotlight, dreamed of playing on the big stage, and what’s bigger than New York. He’ll have both New York teams bidding for him but the Yankees will be the ultimate winner.

∙ Gabe Lacques: Washington Nationals – Jim Crane gets pushed beyond his comfort level and lets another dynasty-building asset walk from Houston. Bregman becomes the veteran glue for a promising core that needs a north star.

∙ Steve Gardner:Houston Astros – Is there any way the Astros actually let Bregman walk? Teammates and fans want him back, plus he’d be crazy to leave Houston, where his medium pull power is tailor-made for depositing home runs into the Crawford Boxes in left field.

∙ Scott Boeck: Houston Astros – It's hard to see Bregman, the face of the franchise, depart after nine years. But then again, Houston let All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa walk.

∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Mets – Boras floated the possibility of Bregman playing second base, which brings the Mets into the conversation since the NL runners-up have Mark Vientos now firmly entrenched at third. The 30-year-old Bregman is coming off the worst season of his career and his 2025 employer may be largely determined by the trickle-down effects of Soto's courtship.

Pete Alonso

∙ Bob Nightengale: Seattle Mariners – Alonso learns that the Mets never really wanted him back after all, instead pursuing Christian Walker. The Yankees hit the pause button as well. Alonso drops into the Mariners’ laps, wishing they would have taken a trade offer from the Mets this past summer.

∙ Gabe Lacques: New York Mets – He already was making $20.5 million, so a bump into the 30s won’t be a major sticker shock. A near-miss on Soto leaves the club hungry to retain some identity.

∙ Steve Gardner: New York Mets – The Polar Bear is beloved in Queens, especially after helping lead the upstart Mets to the NLCS. They need pitching more, but they also can’t afford to risk alienating an energized fanbase.

∙ Scott Boeck: New York Mets – Despite the ups-and-downs in Queens, the Mets have to bring back Alonso and pay the man his money.

∙ Jesse Yomtov: New York Mets – One of the most popular players in Mets history, Alonso just doesn’t have the same intrinsic value elsewhere. He’d be a huge addition for teams in need of power and/or a first baseman, it’s hard to see Cohen letting him go elsewhere if the Mets don’t win the Soto sweepstakes.

Max Fried

∙ Bob Nightengale: Baltimore Orioles – Atlanta was scared to death about his arm and those fears have been echoed by several of the big-market teams. The Orioles can’t afford to be picky, and grab him to replace Burnes in the rotation.

∙ Gabe Lacques: Seattle Mariners – In desperate need of bats, they find them by trading a prized young pitcher or two – and backfill with Fried, a more economical option than Snell or Burnes.

∙ Steve Gardner: Baltimore Orioles – The O’s have a low payroll and need an ace to be legit World Series contenders. Retaining Burnes or going after Snell will likely cost more, so they’ll turn to Fried. Adding a lefty makes sense with Camden Yards’ vast expanse in left field, though Fried is more of ground-ball pitcher anyway.

∙ Scott Boeck: Los Angeles Dodgers – Fried established himself as a true ace in Atlanta, but the Dodgers are big spenders. And what a compliment he would be to Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani when the two-way star returns to the mound.

∙ Jesse Yomtov: San Diego Padres – Originally drafted by San Diego and ultimately traded to the Braves for Justin Upton in 2014, the Southern California native would be a good fit with Joe Musgrove set to miss 2025 after Tommy John surgery.

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