The last weekend of the NFL’s 2023 regular season kicked off Saturday – one playoff berth on the line, and another in play to a lesser degree.
And while the results of the Houston Texans’ 23-19 victory over the Indianapolis Colts and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 17-10 triumph against the Baltimore Ravens speak for themselves in the most obvious ways, there’s far more to parse beyond the final scores – particularly given the trickle-down impact on Sunday’s games.
So while Saturday’s winners and losers might seem self-evident, let’s try to peel back the onion just a little more than the limited view of what transpired on the scoreboard:
Houston’s rookie quarterback (Stroud), head coach (Ryans) and offensive coordinator (Slowik) should all be in serious consideration for postseason awards after restoring this franchise from the depths of Deshaun Watson’s depravity to a playoff outfit for the first time in four years. Stroud’s big night (264 yards, 2 TDs passing, 20 yards rushing) probably secured Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and ensures another showcase opportunity for him and his team a week from now. And if the Jaguars lose Sunday, the Texans will be playing in Houston as AFC South champions.
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The Steelers’ longtime QB3 is now 3-0 since getting inserted into the starting lineup in Week 16 … after Pittsburgh went 7-7 in its first 14 games. Rudolph had another highly efficient performance Saturday, completing 18 of 20 passes amid wet and windy conditions on the road at M&T Bank Stadium, 71 of his 152 yards coming on what turned out to be a game-clinching fourth-quarter TD pass to WR Diontae Johnson. Rudolph’s 90% completion rate Saturday was a single-game franchise record. He’s had a passer rating of at least 110.0 in all three of his starts this season.
The meteoric ascent this season by the Houston wideout was capped by a 195-yard receiving effort that included a touchdown at Lucas Oil Stadium. Collins accounted for nearly 75% of the Texans’ receiving yardage in the win and snagged all nine of his targets. Now he gets to return home and maybe watch his alma mater, the University of Michigan, try to win the national championship at Houston's NRG Stadium … and maybe even invite his Ohio State quarterback, Stroud, to attend, too.
Among the members of the top-seeded AFC North champions who didn’t play: QB Lamar Jackson, WRs Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., ILB Roquan Smith, S Kyle Hamilton, CB Marlon Humphrey and G Kevin Zeitler. When they return to the field in two weeks, they should be pretty healthy … and might even get Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews back. Based on that, you’d have to say Saturday went according to plan.
This was the first appearance under the night lights this season for Indianapolis and the Texans, the latter playing their first 16 games in the 1 p.m. ET time slot on Sundays. Nice to finally see Stroud and Co. featured on a national stage with the season on the line. And would have been nice for the Colts to break out their alternate “Indiana Nights” uniforms given the appropriate occasion finally arose. Either way, a division that seemed destined to be ruled for some time by the Jags a year ago now looks like it could be wide open for the next decade-plus.
Saturday was the 35th meeting between Baltimore HC John Harbaugh and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, key protagonists for one of the league’s greatest rivalries – and THE greatest at times over the past two-plus decades. No two head coaches have matched wits more times since the Super Bowl era began in 1966. Tomlin extended his edge to 20-15.
Though Tomlin officially avoided his first losing season in 17 campaigns courtesy of a Week 17 victory at Seattle, that doesn’t negate the fact the Steelers have been stuck in a bit of a mediocrity rut. This is the third consecutive year Pittsburgh has been outscored over the course of a season, and Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 postseason. But the Steelers persevered Saturday and still have an opportunity to change their average trajectory … if the Bills or Jaguars lose and advance the Steelers on to the wild-card round.
Indy’s RB1 rushed for 188 yards, the second-highest total of his four-year career and most since his rookie season. Prior to Saturday, Taylor, the league rushing champ in 2021, hadn’t broken the century mark in a 2023 season checkered by injuries and an ugly-but-ultimately-resolved contract dispute.
He tied his career high by pushing his sack total for the season to 9½ – a figure that also earned the former No. 1 overall pick (of the Texans in 2014) a $750,000 contract incentive.
Pittsburgh’s star pass rusher collected two sacks, pushing his league-leading total to 19. If that holds up, Watt would become the NFL’s first three-time sack champion since the stat became official in 1982. He, brother J.J. Watt, a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Mark Gastineau and Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware are the only players since 1982 with 19+ sacks in multiple seasons.
Yes, they got belatedly eliminated from postseason consideration. But no one expected them to get this far – and certainly not without rookie QB Anthony Richardson.
That’s twice in three seasons that a Week 18 loss dropped them to 9-8 while costing them a playoff berth.
He left the game in the third quarter after suffering a knee injury during a collision with teammate Montravius Adams. It is unclear if Watt, a six-time Pro Bowler in his seven NFL seasons, would be available if the Steelers qualify for a wild card – though, according to ESPN, he tried to re-enter Saturday’s win at Baltimore. Still, his apparent prognosis is worrisome.
The Steelers’ win eliminated any kind of wild-card path for the Jags, who will either win the AFC South with a win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday or otherwise go home.
Like the Jaguars, they control their path with a win-and-in scenario Sunday – victory giving Buffalo the AFC East crown. But, like Jacksonville, the Bills also saw their options – namely, a wild-card route – narrow Saturday due to the Steelers’ victory.
The Colts’ No. 1 wideout had a career year heading into free agency. But for the second time in three weeks, Pittman suffered a scary shot to the head/neck area, absorbing an ugly blow Saturday from Texans CB Desmond King II that drew a penalty flag. Thankfully, Pittman – he suffered a concussion on a Week 15 hit from Steelers S Damontae Kazee, whose egregious play earned him a suspension for the rest of the regular season – seemed to emerge unscathed, assuming he hopefully doesn’t have a delayed onset of any type of concussive symptoms.
Despite such a surprisingly good season, Indy fans won’t soon forget the Colts’ final offensive snap – Minshew throwing a not-so-accurate pass to Goodson, a running back who had six catches all year and probably should have caught the throw on fourth-and-1 from the Houston 15-yard line. And did Steichen, who burned a timeout before the sequence, make the right call given how Taylor, who wasn't on the field for the play, was running or considering the Colts have more established pass catchers like Pittman? Debate amongst yourselves.
For a while, it appeared liked Houston and Indianapolis might deadlock, knotted 17-17 midway through the fourth quarter. And what chaos would have ensued, not only locking Pittsburgh into the playoffs but allowing the Colts to survive into Sunday – at least. Alas, not how it went down.
***Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.
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